Second Time’s the Charm?

The playoffs are here! The Boston Red Sox got things started with a statement win over their rival New York Yankees, 6-2 in the AL Wild Card Game. As the postseason is in full swing, the yearly question of whether the defending champions repeat arises.

After the Yankees won their third championship in a row in 2000, no team has repeated since. Going into tonight’s NL Wild Card Game between the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers and the St. Louis Cardinals, let’s take a look at how the Dodgers match up to previous winners the following year. 

The Record 

The Dodgers have done something only one other previous champion in this century has done which is win over 100 games in a season. The 2018 Houston Astros went 103-59, two games better than when they won the World Series in the previous year. Much of the success can be attributed to keeping the same core of players on both sides of the field. 2B Jose Altuve followed up his MVP season with another strong year along with 3B Alex Bregman’s 31 home runs and 103 runs batted in. Houston’s pitching was just as dominant with SP Justin Verlander in his first full season as the ace and finished just behind Blake Snell of the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL Cy Young race. The entire rotation was solid including Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Lance McCullers. The biggest key was the addition of Gerrit Cole from the Pirates in an offseason trade to be a lethal one-two combo with Verlander. The two combined for a 31-14 record on the mound to help the Astros win the AL West for the second year in a row. 

In Comparison, the Dodgers have a similar makeup. For the past decade Los Angeles has relied on a similar cast of characters, along with some young talent, to dominate the NL every year. During the shortened 2020 season the Dodgers took the lead in the West on August 14th and never looked back. While they did not win the division this year, a 106-56 record shows they haven’t slowed down. The Dodgers succeeded thanks to a combined offensive effort from the whole lineup throughout the season.

Los Angeles already had a deep well of talent which grew even more when All-Star shortstop Trea Turner joined the team at the deadline. Turner has provided even more depth in the box for L.A. Much like the 2018 Astros, The Dodgers’ major source of strength comes on the mound. SP Walker Buehler has had another stellar year in Los Angeles with a 16-4 record and a 2.47 ERA. The most significant factor in the pitching staff, however, is the other piece in the Trade which brought Turner from the Washington Nationals: Max Scherzer. No matter what jersey Scherzer is wearing he is sure to be one of the best pitchers in the league every year. He already has experience at winning a World Series with the Nationals and has proved his worth with the Dodgers since joining the team at the end of July. Scherzer to the Dodgers had the same effect on the team as Cole to the Astros. Going into the postseason, Scherzer will be called upon even more with SP Clayton Kershaw possibly out for the title defense. 

So the question is, why didn’t the Astros win if they were so dominant? The answer comes in three words: Boston Red Sox. The turn of the century has been very kind to the Red Sox who have won three championships since first breaking the curse of the Bambino in 2004. 2018 was one of their most dominant years as they finished the season 108-54. The Red Sox were so successful because no one could get them out, which was especially true in the playoffs. And when a team got them out, it was even harder to keep them out. Boston tore through their hated rivals, the New York Yankees, 3-1 in the Division Series including a 16-1 beatdown in the Bronx. In the ALCS, the Red Sox ran through the defending champs in five games after dropping the first one at home. Boston put up at least seven runs in three of their wins against Houston. Even with elite pitching the Astros could not stop the Red Sox who steamrolled to the World Series against the Dodgers. Los Angeles made the series a lot closer than the 4-1 outcome suggests but they had to battle in every inning to stay competitive against the eventual champions. 

This year doesn’t seem to have a clear-cut favorite which may actually make it tougher to win this year. The Dodgers will have to face the St. Louis Cardinals who have turned it on in the last month of the season, and then have to take down the San Francisco Giants who edged them out of the NL West by one game. However, the Dodgers have had the best regular seasons compared to the previous champions of the 21st century, making it possible for a repeat. 

The Standing

Despite putting up triple digits in the win column, the Dodgers had the unfortunate privilege of being in the same division as the best team in baseball. Los Angeles is the seventh defending champion since 2000 to finish in second place in their division. (2005 Red Sox, 2008 Red Sox, 2010 Yankees, 2011 Giants, 2012 Cardinals, 2015 Giants.) five of the previous teams made the playoffs, and only one was in the Wild Card Game. That team just happens to be the Dodgers’ current opponent in this year’s Wild Card. 

Although there isn’t a large sample size of history, the 2012 Cardinals are the only other defending champs to play in the Wild Card Game. The two teams are quite different, however, because the Cardinals actually won the World Series as the second place team in the NL Central in 2011. St. Louis also did their title defense under a new manager as Mike Matheny replaced longtime skipper Tony LaRussa in 2012. On the offensive side, the Cards lost their best hitter, 1B Albert Pujols, to the Angels, and played most of the season without 1B Lance Berkman who was second on the team in RBI’s, home runs, and hits. St. Louis relied on their veterans such as LF Matt Holliday, RF Carlos Beltran, and C Yadier Molina. The pitching staff also saw some shake ups as SP Kyle Loshe was the only starter to end with a sub-3.00 ERA. CP Jason Motte became a solid option to end games with 42 saves which was good enough for a tie for first in the NL. 

As previously mentioned, the 2021 Dodgers are bringing back a similar team to their World Series squad to the playoffs this year. So when it comes to comparing the Dodgers to the 2012 Cardinals, there doesn’t seem to be much in common. St. Louis still had an impressive run as they made it to the NLCS before falling to the Giants in seven games. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, finishing second in the division has not worked out as none of the previous six teams made it to the World Series. The hope still remains, however, as a case could be made for the 2021 Dodgers being better than any of the previous champions before them. 

The Longest Playoff Run

This category is less about comparing teams with the Dodgers and more about seeing who did the best in October. While only four teams have gone to the Championship Series in the year of their title defense over the past 20 seasons, the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies is the only team to make an appearance in back-to-back years. 

The Phillies have missed the playoffs 10 years in a row now, but from 2007-2011 they were the kings of the NL East. The 2009 Phillies brought eight of their starting position players to keep up their reliable offense and defense. On the pitching side, they had established veterans such as Cliff Lee, Joe Blanton and the ageless wonder Jamie Moyer combined with the young talent of J.A. Happ and Cole Hamels. The Phillies won the division for the third year in a row and cruised to the World Series before losing in six games to the Yankees. 

Although the Dodgers didn’t win their division this year, they comfortably made the playoffs yet again just like the Phillies in the late 2000s and early 2010s. They also have the same strong core of players and have the capabilities of any team. There is not a lot to be able to compare the two yet since the Dodgers are just now beginning to defend the title in the playoffs, but there is a possibility we could see them run through the NL to get back to the World Series. 

While the 2021 Dodgers have some similarities to other defending champions from the past two decades, it is pretty clear they have a chance of breaking the trend. The biggest factor is how well they play despite not winning their division. Who knows, maybe coming up through the Wild Card after losing the NL West by one game is the motivation needed to be repeat champions.  

Do you think the Dodgers will be able to do it? Let us know. For me, now that my boys from the Bronx are out I won’t mind seeing a repeat so long as they sweep whoever comes out of the AL.

Here is the list of how the past champions faired in the subsequent season. 

2002: Arizona Diamondbacks – 98-64, 1st place, 0-3 NLDS to the St. Louis Cardinals 

2003: Anaheim Angels – 77-85, 3rd 

2004: Florida Marlins – 83-79, 3rd 

2005: Boston Red Sox – 95-67, 2nd, 0-3 ALDS to the Chicago White Sox 

2006: Chicago White Sox – 90-72, 3rd 

2007: St. Louis Cardinals – 78-84, 3rd 

2008: Boston Red Sox – 95-67, 2nd, 3-1 ALDS over the Los Angeles Angles, 3-4 ALCS to the Tampa Bay Rays

2009: Philadelphia Phillies – 93-69, 1st, 3-1 NLDS over the Colorado Rockies, 4-1 NLCS over the Los Angeles Dodgers, 2-4 WS to the New York Yankees 

2010: New York Yankees – 95-67, 2nd, ALCS 2-4 to the Texas Rangers 

2011: San Francisco Giants – 86-76, 2nd 

2012: St. Louis Cardinals – 88-74, 2nd, 1-0 WCG over the Atlanta Braves, 3-2 NLDS over the Washington Nationals, 3-4 NLCS to the San Francisco Giants 

2013: San Francisco Giants – 76-86, 3rd 

2014: Boston Red Sox – 71-91, 5th 

2015: San Francisco Giants – 84-78, 2nd 

2006: Kansas City Royals – 81-81, 3rd 

2017: Chicago Cubs – 92-70, 1st,  1-4 NLCS to the Los Angeles Dodgers 

2018: Houston Astros – 103-59, 1st, 3-0 ALDS over the Cleveland Indians, 1-4 ALCS to the Boston Red Sox 

2019: Boston Red Sox – 84-78, 3rd 

2020: Washington Nationals – 26-34, 5th

Cover photo by Ashley Landis/AP Photo