Dear Pirates, Please Cheat

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been awful. Wait, let’s rephrase that. Terrible. No, that doesn’t do the team justice either. The Pirates are brutally horrendous, and not just this season, but for several consecutive seasons. Trades haven’t helped the franchise, evident from their infamous Austin Meadows/Tyler Glasnow deal, and their crop of young talent can’t compete with the heavyweights in the National League. With that said, there is only one option left for the organization to try — cheat. I mean, how’s the old saying go? “If you aren’t cheating, you aren’t trying.” Plus, it worked out pretty well for the Houston Astros, so what’s the worst that could happen?

Bring Out The Trash Cans

The most notorious cheaters in recent years are the Astros. If you live under a rock and miraculously came out just to read this article, the Astros created an elaborate sign-stealing scheme in which someone would monitor a camera from centerfield and then relay the signs to the batters by banging a trash can. MLB has analytics that can tell you exactly how many inches a curveball broke, but the Astros relied on a trash can to relay their signs to the batters. Well done, Ass-tros. For the sake of this article, we need to find out if this cheating helped them.

A study by two psychologists found that “there was no statistically significant difference in the number of strikes, in-play outs, or hits when the Astros banged the signal.” This study utilized information from Tony Adams, who listened to every pitch from the 2017 season for any trash can banging and reported the results on his website. 

According to Adams’s data, the majority of the sign-stealing took place between May 28 and September 21, 2017. In these home games, the Astros were 26-20 and won eight of their last nine. Without that eight-game winning streak, they were 18-20 — a losing record. Outside of this 46 game stretch, the Astros were 24-13. So it is safe to say that they were significantly better as a team when they weren’t banging trash cans. However, the pitching was likely just bad during that 46 game stretch. So let’s look at offensive production.

Throughout the 46 game trash-banging entourage, the Astros averaged 5.43 runs per game. In the 37 games where they did not, they averaged 4.35 runs per game. Now I know what you are thinking, “that’s a full run better! The Pirates can turn this around!” 

Not so fast, my friends.

Over the past three years, Houston has routinely been at the top of the American League in runs per game. For example, in 2019, they averaged 5.68; in 2020, they averaged 4.65; and so far this year, they are averaging 5.45. Since they produced similar, and frequently better, numbers without cheating, it is irresponsible to suggest that the cheating helped them perform at a higher level. They may have stopped sign-stealing because it wasn’t helping them. You can buy that if you want.

I hate to admit this, especially since I just spent the last day and a half doing math, but it looks like banging trash cans has no correlation to an increased batting average or run production. So, since there is no proven benefit, it leads me to a pretty straightforward secondary option. 

From an individual player’s standpoint, I will acknowledge that knowing the pitch type and location is a critical advantage. However, from a team standpoint, their cheating efforts provided minimal results.

Foreign Substances

Again, the issue of foreign substances shouldn’t require an introduction. The increased use of foreign substances has caused an upheaval in MLB. It has been at the forefront of any discussion on baseball for almost the entirety of the summer. Despite the widespread acceptance of foreign substances before mid-June, some teams used it better than others. Unsurprisingly, the Pirates were not the best at using it (they generally aren’t the best at anything). This means that they could cheat better and potentially improve their quality of play. Let’s see how impactful these foreign substances are.

Before the crackdown, 17 pitchers averaged a four-seam fastball with higher than 2,600 revolutions per minute. Since the crackdown, there are just two pitchers who average over 2,600 RPMs on four-seam fastballs. This stat alone gives us a pretty clear picture of just how much of an impact foreign substances were having on the sport. However, how does a high spin rate impact a pitcher’s performance?

To answer the question shortly, it has a significant impact on pitcher performance. That is why they do it. In 2021, when hitters faced a less than 2,600 rpm, four-seam fastball, they had a .803 OPS. The moment that fastball jumps above 2,600 RPMs, their OPS dipped to .676. So the Pirates could use some of this sticky stuff to help their pitching staff.

In 2021, no one was more effective in increasing spin rate than the Los Angeles Dodgers. Before the crackdown, 34.6% of the Dodger’s four-seam fastballs had a spin rate above 2,600 RPMs. The next closest team was the Colorado Rockies at 11.3%. After the crackdown, the Dodgers threw just 4.6% of their four-seam fastballs above 2,600 RPMs. For fun, let’s pretend the Pirates cheat as hard as the Dodgers did in the first few months of the season. What would the result look like? Would the Pirates be a winning ball club?

Before the crackdown, the Dodgers pitching staff limited opposing offenses by 65.4 runs over the 71 games they played, and the Pirates helped opposing offenses by 31 runs over their 70 games. This means the Dodgers pitching staff is suitable for -.92 runs per game less than the league average, and the Pirates pitching staff is good for +.44 runs per game.

Since June 20, the Dodgers pitching staff has had a run-value of -17.1 over 20 games. Conversely, the Pirates pitching staff has had a +8.4 run value over 20 games. You can do the math in your head, but you may be disappointed to find that there has been no discernible difference since the changes.

As hard as it is to admit as a Pirates fan, no amount of cheating seems to make a difference when you are flat-out awful. Before the crackdown, the Dodgers had an opponent BA of .212. After the crackdown, it only jumped to .224. The Dodgers have a good pitching staff. Did the increase in spin rate help them? Yes, of course. However, as buzzworthy as spin-rate is, it is not an end-all-be-all. The Pirates have the fifth-highest spin rate in the league but the seventh-worst run value. The Astros are on a similar trend. Did they cheat? Of course. However, the evidence I’ve found seems to suggest that talent is the great equalizer. Without it, no level of cheating will help you win ball games. 

Finally, it is essential to point out that we are comparing one of the best teams in the league to one of the worst teams. Cheating isn’t going to make the Pirates a first-place team. However, in a tight division like the NL West, every slight edge is important. Before the crackdown, the Dodgers had a significantly higher spin rate than their cross-state rival San Diego Padres (+197 RPMs). After the crackdown, they were only marginally better (+21 RPMs).

Moreover, the effectiveness of the Dodgers’ four-seam fastballs has dropped by a small percentage. In contrast, the Padres’ four-seam fastball effectiveness has nearly tripled since the crackdown. Although the Padres may have a bone to pick, that is an article for another day. For now, Pirates fans have only prospects to look forward to. 

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted.

Cover photo courtesy of Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo