The Three Constants In Baseball

If you view baseball as I do, then you will know that the sport defines life. And just like the crazy game of life, we can always count on three constants in baseball: death, taxes and LHP Aroldis Chapman smirking at the camera after giving up a postseason home run. 

The death, or downfall, of a player’s career is inevitable, and taxes must exist — otherwise, the New York Yankees would spend billions to win their first World Series since 2009. And let’s be honest, postseason baseball wouldn’t be the same without Chapman’s grin signifying that the Yankees were eliminated.

The flame-throwing lefty has been one of the most dominant closing pitchers since he broke onto the scene with the Cincinnati Reds in 2010. Although he no longer throws a 105 mph heater, his 101 mph fastball paired with a slider, splitter and sinker are still blowing batters away with relative ease. After 12 seasons, Chapman owns an impressive 2.19 career ERA and a 2.40 postseason ERA in 41.1 innings.

But If Chapman is such a dominant pitcher, why is his smirk one of the three constants in baseball? As a closing pitcher, Chapman typically enters with the game on the line. When that happens, all it takes is one run to permanently engrave his name on the wrong side of the history books.

Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Indians, World Series Game 7 (2016)

While Chapman was a member of the Chicago Cubs for half a season, his trend of giving up a tying, go-ahead or game-winning home run started during their 2016 World Series championship run. After a nearly three-minute-long and seven-pitch at-bat, OF Rajai Davis blasted a game-tying, two-run homer off Chapman. It was also Chapman’s third blown save of the postseason. The Cubs won, and Chapman ultimately earned the win, but it was the start of a trend nonetheless. Chapman has only allowed three postseason home runs, two of which resulted in a loss for him and the Yankees.

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees, ALCS Game 6 (2019)

Arguably the most memorable, heartbreaking home run ever hit, 2B José Altuve took Chapman deep for a two-run shot sending the Houston Astros to the 2019 World Series. It only took two years and 11 postseason innings before Chapman gave up his second postseason home run, and it was a big one. Altuve sent the cheating Astros back to the World Series after driving a hanging slider over the left-center field wall on a 2-1 pitch.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees, ALDS game 5 (2020)

Tied game, bottom of the eighth inning, full count and it is Chapman vs. Mike Brosseau. This 10-pitch at-bat resulted in a go-ahead home run that put the Rays up 2-1 and ultimately eliminated the Yankees from the playoffs. Brosseau turned and burned a sizzling 100 mph fastball over the left field fence, which left Chapman standing alone on the bump with nothing to do except find a camera and give his signature smirk to the viewers at home.

It should be noted that Chapman has been a dominant pitcher in the regular season and the postseason. Chapman has always kept the ball in the yard, giving up 29 regular season and three postseason home runs over his 12-year career. The most home runs he allowed in a single season was seven back in 2013 with the Reds, yet he still finished the season with a 2.54 ERA over 63.2 innings pitched. Since then, he hasn’t allowed more than three in any season. 

While Yankees fans’ hearts might skip a beat during the next postseason game Chapman is called upon, it is also worth noting Chapman is having one of his best starts to a season this year. He is a perfect 9/9 in save opportunities with a spotless 0.00 ERA over 15 innings. I am not a baseball guru, but his newfound success could be because of his pitch arsenal usage.

In the 2020 season, when Chapman finished with a 3.09 ERA over 11.2 innings, 72.4% of his pitches were fastballs, and only 12 were either the splitter or sinker. This year, Chapman still relies on his scorching fastball but has emphasized his breaking pitches. According to Baseball Savant, Chapman tuned down his fastball usage to 53.2% as of Saturday’s contest, and his splitter and sinker have been featured more often at 12.3% and 11.8%, respectively. In 2020, Chapman only threw the sinker at a 4.5% clip and the splitter at a microscopic 1.5%.

All in all, if Chapman can continue his success from the regular season into the postseason, one of baseball’s constants might finally disappear, and Chapman can rewrite his success in the history books. 

Cover photo courtesy of Kathy Willens/AP Photo