Free Agents, Get Your Free Agents!

Now that the World Series has ended with the Atlanta Braves taking home their first title since 1995, the baseball industry has shifted towards the offseason.  While the hot stove has not heated up yet—and it might not for many months—free agency has already gotten underway.

No big deals have happened yet, but the Los Angeles Dodgers surprisingly signed SP Andrew Heaney, who is coming off a dismal year split between the Los Angeles Angels and the New York Yankees.  Heaney cannot stop himself from giving up home runs, but the Dodgers front office might find a way to improve his results.

There will be many more one-year deals handed out, but the 2021 free agent class is much deeper than the past few years.  That means we should see a higher number of multi-year contracts since there are more players who warrant such a deal.

“Should” is carrying a lot of weight in that sentence, because Major League Baseball is almost certainly headed for a lockout.  Relations between the players and owners haven’t been this fragile since the 1994 strike.  The Collective Bargaining Agreement expires next month, and there are few indications that the two sides will come up with a new CBA in time.  Teams in general are wary of spending money with an uncertain financial future, but that is especially true this year when many of the hot button issues relate to player compensation.

I will not be going into the numerous CBA issues here, but it is important to keep in mind when projecting free agent contracts and destinations.  The valuable websites FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors have created their own Top 50 free agent lists with projections and player breakdowns, but this will be more of a broad overview.  Let’s see who is available this winter.

Hall of Famers Abound

What is the best way to satisfy a fanbase during the offseason?  Sign a living legend, of course!  No less than four future Hall of Fame starting pitchers are available, and three of them still hold ace status.  There will be bidding wars for Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Verlander, and a declining Zack Greinke will also draw some interest.

Coming off a Cy Young candidacy, Scherzer is the top pitcher on the market and could sign a record contract.  At 37, he is looking at a one- or two-year deal, but he might get a higher average annual value than anyone else in history.  I would not be shocked if a contender shells out $40 million a year for Scherzer to front their rotation.

Verlander missed the whole 2021 season due to injuries, but he had a successful showcase this week.  With scouts from around 20 teams in attendance, he threw all of his pitches, and his fastball was consistently clocked in the mid-90’s.  He will also look for a two-year deal worth a high amount.

Kershaw is also recovering from an injury, but he pitched well up until that point this year.  At 33, he is not quite as old as the others and could sign for at least four years.  A reunion with the Dodgers is likely, but they curiously did not make him a qualifying offer.  He is expected to get more than $18.4 million per year, so it is possible his injury is more serious than we think.

Year of the Shortstop

Five of the top ten free agents are shortstops, and each of them bring offensive upside.  Carlos Correa is the best of the bunch and will get the largest contract because he is the best defender and profiles at shortstop long term.  The Astros offered him a loaded five-year deal, but he will certainly get seven or eight yeas on the open market.  Some think he can reach the $300 million benchmark, but that sounds steep to me.

A close second is Corey Seager, who brings a slightly better bat to the table but inferior defense.  He has power to all fields and controls the zone well but won’t stay at shortstop much longer.  A move to third in the near future will let his strong arm play up in a position that requires less range. Seager also has the highest risk of injury in this crop.

2B Marcus Semien is my favorite of the group after betting on himself last offseason.  He stumbled in 2020 and signed a prove it deal with the Blue Jays only to set the second baseman record for home runs in a season.  He will probably stay at second going forward, but a desperate team might let him play shortstop again.

If we were talking a year ago, Trevor Story might be at the top of the list.  His above-average power, speed, and defense are all envious, but his offensive line took a step back this season.  Some people worry how well he will hit outside of Colorado, but he has been a capable player on the road his whole career.  I expect a big bounce back in 2022.

The alarming swing and miss issues leave 2B Javier Baez in fifth, but whoever signs him will still be happy.  He moved to second after a midseason trade to the New York Mets, and he is the only one with a decent chance of resigning.  Baez still has a lot of power and an exciting glove, but it is unreasonable to expect a repeat of 2018 at this point.

Power All Around

What this class lacks in contact hitters it makes up for in sluggers.  World Series champ and leader 1B Freddie Freeman is the biggest name, and he will likely stay in Atlanta.  OF Nick Castellanos is due for a raise after opting out of his contract with the Cincinnati Reds, and the impending institution of the DH in the National League will help him.  The same is true of OF/1B Kyle Schwarber, who will get a much better deal than the one-year $10 million he signed last year.  Look out for OF Seiya Suzuki, the best hitter from Japan, who was posted just last week.  CF Starling Marte is the best leadoff option available. 3B Kris Bryant and OF Chris Taylor are appealing multi-positional players.

Power also applies to pitching and CP Raisel Iglesias is by far the best reliever on the market.  He got a qualifying offer from the Angels but will still get top dollar following his best season.  SP’s Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman are looking for long-term deals after accepting QO’s last year.  SP Carlos Rodon broke out this year and will get a nice payday after making just $3 million in 2021.

No matter what happens with the CBA, all the top players will sign at some point.  It just might take longer than fans would like to see.  Remember, a lockout is the owners’ fault for only caring about money and not the health of the sport.